A Surrogate Forward Model Using Artificial Neural Networks in�Conjunction with Bayesian Computations for 3D Conduction-Convection Heat Transfer�Problem

Abstract

The present work describes the determination of heat flux at the boundary for a conjugate heat transfer problem based on a coupled three-dimensional conduction-convection fin numerical model, also referred to as complete model. The model is developed using commercially available software and solved along with Navier�Stokes equation in order to acquire the required temperature distribution. An inverse analysis is proposed by treating the boundary heat flux as unknown while the temperatures of the fin are known. The inverse analysis is greatly accomplished with the help of Bayesian framework that combines the solution of the forward model and the simulated measurements. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is applied to explore the sample space that drives samples to proper convergence and the selection or acceptance of the new samples is performed using Metropolis�Hastings algorithm. Thus, the novelty of the present work is the use of artificial neural network (ANN) as surrogate model, that not only retains the full nature of the complete model but also acts as a fast forward model in the inverse analysis, within the Bayesian framework that quantifies the uncertainty of heat flux. The results of the present work emphasize that even for noise-added temperature data the final estimates are very close to the actual values and the uncertainty of the unknown heat flux is reported in terms of standard deviation accompanied by mean and maximum a posteriori (MAP). � 2020, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.