Assessment of meteorological drought return periods over a temporal rainfall change

Abstract

Investigation of the rainfall homogeneity along with bivariate frequency analysis of drought considering change points in long-term annual precipitation series has been carried out in this study. Nonparametric Pettitt’s test was applied for detecting change points of annual precipitation series at different grid locations over the Ghataprabha River Basin. Depending on the results of change point analysis, we divided the entire period of 1950–2013 into two subperiods: from 1950 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013. Characterization of meteorological drought is performed with the help of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a time scale of three months for the period before the change point (1950–1980), after the change point (1981–2013) and for the entire period of 1950–2013. Three Archimedean copulas, namely Clayton, Gumbel–Houggard, and Frank, were tested for joint distribution modeling. The Akaike’s and Bayesian information criteria have been implemented for selecting the best copula; the Gumbel–Hougaard copula performed comparatively better for all three periods. Drought return periods were calculated using the joint distribution of drought characteristics. The study gives valuable insight into drought risk management on a regional scale. © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2021.